In my previous blog post, I provided a recap of my baseball vacation in July, in which I drove around the Midwest and went to seven Major League Baseball games in one week.  However, that was six weeks ago, and it might be time to post some new content on here.  As we transition into September and with football season now upon us, I will shift the sports topic from baseball to football.

With the NFL season only one week away, I thought I would take this opportunity to make some predictions for the upcoming season.  As an Indianapolis Colts fan, some of this post will be specific to the Colts.  I will provide my outlook for the upcoming Colts season, including a recap of my visit to one of their training camp practices last month.  I will also take some time to make some overall league-wide predictions for the 2021 NFL season.

For the record, I don’t have the best track record in making predictions.  I never seem to win those NCAA March Madness contests.  (If only the teams with the more ferocious mascots would actually win more of their games.)  On the football side of things, last year, I predicted on this blog that COVID would shut down the 2020 NFL season unless they followed my specific plan for a shortened season.  Although it was quite the roller coaster that included some massive rescheduling, the NFL did get the whole season in without heeding my advice.  Perhaps it was a specific effort on their part to prove me wrong, but they managed to get it done.  More recently on the prediction front, last month, when Colts quarterback Carson Wentz suffered a foot injury in training camp that the team said would keep him out “5 to 12 weeks,” I predicted he would miss the entire season.  (If you are familiar with the Colts pre-season quarterback injury situations from 2011, 2017, and 2019, you understand exactly why.)  Five weeks later, Wentz is reportedly on track enough to potentially start the opening game.  All that to say, my track record with sports predictions is a bit spotty.  But, just for the fun of it, I’m going to make some predictions anyway.

Colts Analysis

First, before we get into the NFL overall, let’s look at my favorite team, the Colts.  How will they do this year?  They are coming off a season in which they finished 11-5, made the playoffs, and narrowly lost in the first round.  After last season, the NFL increased the number of regular season games for each team from 16 to 17, so their record won’t be 11-5 again this year.  Starting quarterback Philip Rivers retired after the season, so the Colts traded for Carson Wentz from the Philadelphia Eagles to replace him.  Much of the rest of the team remains the same.  Behind a good, young running back in Jonathan Taylor, a good offensive line, and a good defense, the Colts should theoretically have what it takes to take a step forward and be a contender in the AFC.  However, there are a lot of unknowns that could derail things very quickly.  Here are four potential issues facing the Colts this season:

1. The schedule.  This year, the NFC portion of their schedule is perhaps the toughest it can possibly be.  They play four games against the NFC West, the toughest division in the league, plus a game against the defending Super Bowl champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers.  My game-by-game predictions have the Colts going 1-4 against the NFC, so they will have to be great against the AFC.
2. What can we expect from Carson Wentz?  This is a huge unknown, as he has a history with the Eagles of being either very good or very bad.  Also, he is recovering from a foot injury suffered at the start of training camp five weeks ago.  The Colts should be good if Wentz is healthy and simply plays competent, but we simply don’t know what to expect there.
3. Injuries.  They affect every football team, but the Colts always seem to suffer numerous injuries to key players every year that derail September optimism.  Besides Wentz’s foot injury, wide receiver T.Y. Hilton and left tackle Eric Fisher will miss the start of the season with injuries.  And we all know there will be even more injuries during the season.
4. COVID.  I don’t want to talk about this too much because we’re all tired of it, and I also don’t want to start a vaccine debate.  But the Colts reportedly have one of the lowest percentages of vaccinated players in the league.  Between the actual virus and the NFL’s protocols, that means the Colts have a greater potential to have some key players unavailable at some point during the season.  Make of that what you will.

Colts Training Camp

Before I get into my season prediction for the Colts, in order to make a more informed evaluation of the team (and also because it was something fun to do), I visited Colts training camp in Westfield, Indiana last month to watch the team practice.  It was interesting.  The weather was comfortable that day, so that’s always a plus.  They practice at a nice facility there, and they even had a “fan experience” before practice where you could practice your throwing skills, catch a punt (from a machine, not from an actual punter), and run the 40-yard dash.  I can’t throw worth a lick, but I can catch a punt, and I can run the 40 in 6.7 seconds.  That’s a terrible time compared to NFL players, who can run them in less than 5 seconds, but I’d like to think it holds up well compared to the average human.  At the end of practice, players signed mini footballs and tossed them into the stands.  I caught an autographed mini football that was signed by offensive lineman Danny Pinter.  I’m keeping it as a souvenir, next to my souvenir home run baseball from Detroit this summer.

I also got to see the Colts practice for an hour an a half, so now I know all their super-secret plays*.  I got to watch a lot of team drills which were mostly boring, but also some offense vs. defense drills, which is what everyone wants to see.  Of course, it’s hard to tell how good a team is simply by watching them practice, but for the sake of this blog, let’s say that my watching them now makes me an expert on the team, which makes me qualified to offer the following predictions.

*I don’t really know all their super-secret plays; they won’t run them with fans in attendance.

Colts Season: Game by Game Results

Here’s a game-by-game breakdown of the Colts season, starting with their opener on September 12 at home against Seattle:

The Colts’ early season schedule is brutal.  I have their first three games – against Seattle, the Los Angeles Rams, and at division rival Tennessee – as all losses to start 0-3.  It’s not ideal, but those are three tough games, they are starting the season with some players already injured, and Wentz may not be 100% to start the year.

The next two games against Miami and Baltimore should be tough as well.  The Colts better not start 0-5; they’re too good for that.  Miami should be decent but the Colts can beat them. Baltimore is good, but dealing with its own season-ending injury to a star player.  I see the Colts getting on track just in time to earn a couple of hard-fought wins to get to 2-3.  Then they get to play Houston, who will be the worst team in football this year.  So that better be a win. I’m going to say it is, and the Colts will be 3-3.

Up next is San Francisco on Sunday Night Football.  That could go either way, but the 49ers are at home and should be improved this year. If 49ers rookie quarterback Trey Lance is starting by then, this could be the game where he arrives on the national stage.  (Remember the name Trey Lance.)  The 49ers win this one to put the Colts at 3-4. Then comes another game against Tennessee at home.  While I had the Colts losing their earlier game to the Titans, they are evenly matched enough that I figure they will split their two games, and the Colts will win the home game and go to 4-4.  Then a win against the lowly New York Jets gives them a winning record at 5-4.  They will be 5-1 after an 0-3 start.

Their next game is at home against Jacksonville, another traditionally bad team.  The problem is, the Colts always find a way to lose one game to them every year that they have no business losing.  This will be that game.  The Colts will drop to 5-5, causing Colts fans to ask, “How did we lose to Jacksonville???”  Things immediately get tougher, with a road loss to Buffalo in the snow, followed by a loss to the defending Super Bowl champion Bucs, despite the fact that Tampa Bay’s quarterback will throw for four interceptions in that game.  The Colts will have now lost three straight games again, with their playoff odds looking bleak at 5-7.

Fortunately, the toughest part of the schedule is now behind them, and the last five games of the season all appear winnable.  Another cakewalk against Houston gets the Colts to 6-7, and then after a much-needed bye week, they play a much-anticipated game against their rivals from out east, who no longer have a certain quarterback from their past 20 years. The Colts win a thriller to get back to .500 as Chris Ballard announces, “The rivalry is back on!”  Then comes their Christmas Day game at Arizona.  This is another game that really could go either way, but the Colts will be riding a wave of momentum, and I have them giving their fans a Christmas present by winning here.  Then comes a game against Las Vegas, who I don’t think will be very good.  The Colts win again to go to 9-7 with one game left.

This sets up the season finale at Jacksonville, and the Colts will find themselves in exactly the same situation they were in last year.  Beat Jacksonville in their final game and make the playoffs, or lose and go home.  Just as they did last year, they will take care of business in the finale and squeak into the playoffs.  Yes, they will have won their last five games to do it.

There you have it.  My prediction for the Colts is 10-7 and a playoff berth – barely.  Last year, they went 11-5, so if my prediction holds up, their record will be worse this year.  Admittedly, this involves some wild guessing, as many of these games could go either way.  If everything comes together, this team could even win the AFC South division, but that’s a best-case scenario and probably too optimistic.  I still have the division going to Tennessee.  Worst-case scenario – everything comes off the rails and the Colts go 5-12.  But let’s not think about that possibility.  Let’s just root for another playoff berth this year (anything beyond that is a bonus), see what happens, and hope for an even brighter future in the seasons ahead.

NFL Outlook

With the Colts season outlook now completed, what is my prediction for the NFL season overall?  I went ahead and made a division-by-division breakdown below of each team’s record, based on my informed expertise…guessing.  As someone with a mathematical background, I would like to point out that in order to make such predictions about each team’s record, the total number of wins has to equal the total number of losses.  Since there are 32 teams in the NFL and each team now plays 17 games, the total cumulative record must be 272-272.  Unless, of course, you predict any ties, but let’s not actually do that.  Check out my predicted standings below:

AFC Division Winners:  Kansas City Chiefs, Buffalo Bills, Tennessee Titans, Cleveland Browns

AFC Wild Cards:  Baltimore Ravens, Indianapolis Colts, Los Angeles Chargers

The Chiefs establish themselves as the favorites to win, behind their offense led by Patrick Mahomes (who will win MVP), Tyreek Hill, and Travis Kelce.  Meanwhile, a handful of familiar teams will battle it out to see who will challenge them.  Most of the playoff field ends up the same as last year, with the exception of the supposedly improved Chargers, knocking the Pittsburgh Steelers out of it.  Watch out for the Chargers going forward.  Or maybe I’m biased because their quarterback, Justin Herbert, is the top quarterback on my fantasy football team.

NFC Division Winners:  Green Bay Packers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Los Angeles Rams, Dallas Cowboys

NFC Wild Cards:  Seattle Seahawks, San Francisco 49ers, Washington Football Team

Aaron Rodgers, with all the drama surrounding him over the last few months, leads the Packers to another great season, reminiscent of Michael Jordan’s “Last Dance” with the Chicago Bulls.  Dak Prescott wins Comeback Player of the Year after a gruesome ankle injury last year to lead the Cowboys back to the playoffs.  The 49ers crash the party as well behind a supposedly easy schedule.  Three teams from the NFC West make it in.  Teams that made the playoffs last year who won’t make it this year include the New Orleans Saints (due to the retirement of Drew Brees) and the Chicago Bears (who will show some promise with a rookie quarterback…eventually).

AFC Championship:  Kansas City Chiefs over Buffalo Bills.  This is the exact matchup and result that took place last year, so perhaps this prediction is too obvious.  But the Chiefs have Mahomes and are clearly the team to beat in the AFC, while I still think Buffalo is again their most likely challenger.

NFC Championship:  Green Bay Packers over Tampa Bay Buccaneers.  Once again, I am predicting a conference championship re-match.  However, I am predicting a different result, as the Packers avenge last year’s loss to the Bucs to reach the Super Bowl.  With the Packers down by 4 points with only a few seconds to go, coach Matt LeFleur inexplicably sends out the field goal team on 4^th down, Rodgers waves them off, and throws a touchdown pass to win the game.  On the other side, the Bucs’ quarterback retires following the game.

Super Bowl:  Kansas City Chiefs over Green Bay Packers.  Finally, we get the “State Farm” Super Bowl, with Patrick Mahomes and Aaron Rodgers, the two spokesmen in the State Farm commercials.  Mahomes throws for 400 yards and 5 touchdowns as the Chiefs roll to their second Super Bowl win in three years.  Rodgers announces after the game that he is leaving the Packers to host Jeopardy, only to be reminded that he did not get the job at Jeopardy, then announces that he will be a free agent for the following season.

Conclusion

Those are my predictions for the Colts’ 2021 season and the NFL season as a whole.  I hope you enjoyed my recap of Colts practice and my outlook on the upcoming season.  Obviously, if these predictions actually turn out to be correct, I will refer back to them at the end of the season.  In the meantime, what do you think?  Does this outlook seem accurate to you?  Or where did I mess up?  Leave a non-spam comment in the comments section and let me know.

Are you ready for some football?